The impact of COVID-19 at major U.S. retail container ports appears to be easing slightly, with projected imports remaining below last year’s levels. However, this is not as much as previously forecast, according to the Global Port Tracker report released on June 8 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. “The numbers we’re seeing are still below last year, but are better than what we expected a month ago,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.
“It may still be too soon to say but we’ll take that as a sign that the situation could be slowly starting to improve. Consumers want to get back to shopping, and as more people get back to work, retailers want to be sure their shelves are stocked.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.61 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in April, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 7.8% from a year earlier, but up 17% from a four-year low seen in March and significantly better than the 1.51 million TEU previously expected.
“Imports are erratic, with one month up and the next down,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Getting 40 million people back to work will take time, especially with many fearful of catching the virus and staying home. That makes a rapid return to an economic boom unlikely.”
May was estimated at 1.58 million TEU, down 14.6% year-over-year, but up from the 1.47 million TEU forecast a month ago.
Forecasts looking forward are:
- June is forecast at 1.56 million TEU, down 12.9% from last year but up from the previous forecast of 1.46 million TEU, while
- July is forecast at 1.62 million TEU, down 17.4% from last year but up from 1.58 million TEU previously expected.
- August is forecast at 1.71 million TEU, just below the 1.73 million TEU expected a month ago and down 12.9% from last year,
- September is forecast at 1.66 million TEU, slightly lower than the 1.7 million TEU expected a month ago and down 11.3% from last year.
- October, which was not previously forecast, is expected to total 1.73 million TEU, down 7.9% from last year. That would mark the first time since April that the year-over-year decline would drop from double digits to single digits. Imports for the six-month period from April through September are expected to total 9.74 million TEU, a 3% improvement from the 9.46 million TEU expected a month ago.
The first half of 2020 is forecast to total 9.46 million TEU, down 10% from the same period last year but better than the 9.15 million TEU expected a month ago
Before the extent of the pandemic was known, the first half of the year was forecast at 10.47 million TEU. Imports during 2019 totaled 21.6 million TEU, a 0.8% decrease from 2018 amid the trade war with China but still the second-highest year on record.
