Import Cargo Rising Due to Potential Port Strike, Higher Tariffs

With the possibility of strikes beginning next month at both East Coast and Gulf container ports, the nation’s major container ports are expected to see a continued surge in imports through next spring, according to the Global Port Tracker report released on Dec. 9 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. In addition President-elect Donald Trump  has said he plans to increase a wide range of tariffs once he takes office on January 20.

“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said, in a statement.

 “We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers and the nation’s economy. We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike. And we call on the incoming administration to use tariffs in a strategic manner rather than a broad-based approach impacting everyday consumer goods.”

Talks have broken down between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance, leaving the potential for a strike after the current contract extension reached after a three-day strike in October expires January 15. NRF last week led a coalition of trade associations in sending a letter asking both parties to return to the bargaining table.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said retailers are under pressure as they frontload cargo to avoid both the disruption of the strike and higher costs from the tariffs.

“Prospects of reaching a quick agreement on the key sticking point of automation are not looking good,” Hackett said in a statement referring to the port labor contract. “The window to frontload goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing. Then there are issues as President-elect Trump promises to increase tariffs when he takes office. It is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement the tariffs, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.25 million TEU in October, although the Port of Miami has yet to report final data. That was down 1.2% from September but up 9.3% year over year.

Projections for port volume for the rest of this year are as follows:

• November is forecasted at 2.17 million TEU, up 14.4% year over year.
• December is forecast at 2.14 million TEU, up 14.3% year over year.

That would bring 2024 to 25.6 million TEU, up 14.8% from 2023. Before the October strike and November’s elections, November had been forecast at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, while the total for 2024 was forecast at 24.9 million TEU.

Projections for port volume in 2025 are as follows:

• January 2025 is forecast at 2.2 million TEU, up 12% year-over- year.
• February at 1.87 million TEU, down 4.1% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories.
• March at 2.17 million TEU, up 12.7%
• April at 2.15 million TEU, up 6.6%