Deloitte released its annual holiday retail forecast on September 12 which predicts that holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 2.3% and 3.3% in 2024,
The firm is pegging overall sales to total $1.58 trillion to $1.59 trillion during the November to January timeframe.
Retail sales between November 2023 and January 2024 (seasonally adjusted and excluding automotive and gasoline) grew 4.3% and totaled $1.54 trillion according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
E-commerce will be a key driver of overall retail sales growth, and grow between 7% and 9%, year-over-year, during the 2024-2025 holiday season to between $289 billion and $294 billion this season.
E-commerce sales between November 2023 and January 2024 (seasonally adjusted and excluding gasoline stations, motor vehicles and parts dealers, and food services) grew 10.1% totaling an estimated $270 billion.
"Although the pace of increase in holiday sales will be slower than last year, we expect that healthy growth in disposable personal income (DPI), combined with a steady labor market, will support a solid holiday sales season," said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights., in a statement.
"Meanwhile, inflation is both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales. While declining inflation aids consumers' purchasing power, it also is expected to negatively impact the nominal rise in the dollar value of sales. In addition, rising credit card debt and the possibility that many consumers have exhausted their pandemic-era savings will likely weigh on sales growth this season compared to the previous one."
