MH&L has gathered reactions from a number of organizations as to what impact these new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will have on the US.
American Trucking Associations
President & CEO Chris Spear of the American Trucking Associations released this statement:
"Truckers live in every state and community throughout our country. We have seen firsthand the devastating effects of fentanyl and the humanitarian crisis caused by unchecked illegal immigration. President Trump has rightfully placed an emphasis on tackling these challenges, and the trucking industry is committed to being a part of the solution. That is why we are raising public awareness and supporting legislation to remove deadly fentanyl from our streets, backing efforts to increase the security and efficiency of our borders, and training our workforce to recognize and report instances of human trafficking.
"As we work to make our communities stronger and safer, we must also avoid unintended consequences that could exacerbate another one of Americans’ top concerns: the high prices for goods and groceries. With the success of USMCA and the growing trend of nearshoring, the North American supply chain has become highly integrated and supports millions of jobs. Imposing border taxes on our two largest and most important trading partners will undo this progress and raise costs for consumers. The 100,000 full-time hardworking truckers hauling 85% of the surface trade in goods with Mexico and 67% of the goods traded with Canada will bear a direct and disproportionate impact. Not only will tariffs reduce cross-border freight, but they will also increase operational costs. The price tag of a new truck could rise by up to $35,000, amounting to a $2 billion annual tax and putting new equipment out of reach for small carriers.
"The longer tariffs last, the greater the pain for truckers as well as the families and businesses we serve. The Trump Administration knows our industry well and understands how vital trucking is to our economy and supply chain. President Trump proved his dealmaking skills during his first term by negotiating the USMCA. To prevent unnecessary economic pain, the trucking industry urges all parties to come to the table once again to swiftly reach a new agreement."
The Conference Board
This business organization said to "expect weaker economic growth in the US and for its three leading trading partners' due to the tariffs.
Their analysis is as follows:
Bracing for impact: These tariffs impact a wide variety of US consumer and business goods. Together, goods from Canada, Mexico, and China make up 41% of US imports. The tariffs will have a significant impact on US grocery items, consumer packaging and building materials, automotive vehicles and parts, electronics, and manufacturing inputs including critical minerals.
The US manufacturing industry has been bracing for tariffs, and the monthly Manufacturing ISM Report on Business released this week shows a contraction in the New Orders Index, as well as a surge in its Prices Index, now at its highest point since June 2022. An increase in prices is expected—at least in part—to be passed on to consumers.
Growth and inflation fallout: The combined effects of the initially stated tariffs—25% each on Mexico and Canada, and 10% on China—could result in a 0.9 percentage point cut to US real GDP growth after four quarters, as well as a potential 0.6 percentage point rise in US inflation over four quarters. They will also lower GDP growth in the targeted economies. (For complete analysis, see our report US Tariff Plan Would Cut GDP Growth, Swell Inflation.)
The Administration cited the need to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act due to perceived threats posed by drugs and individuals entering the US illegally from these countries as the reason for the tariffs.
The TCB take: Businesses should consider identifying alternatives for products and inputs—however, companies need to consider that this is a highly fluid situation and a schedule of reciprocal tariffs on the US’s 200+ trading partners is expected to be announced within the next couple of months. This has translated into a highly uncertain environment regarding the altering of supply chains.
National Retail Federation
National Retail Federation Executive Vice President of Government Relations David French offered the following statement.
“The decision to impose tariffs on our North American neighbors and two of our largest trading partners is a significant measure. Unfortunately, it is one that will only hurt hardworking Americans and the businesses that strive to provide customers with the products they want and need on a daily basis.
“Tariffs are just one tool at the administration’s disposal to achieve a secure border, and we urge it to explore other options to accomplish the same goals. As long as these tariffs are in place, Americans will be forced to pay higher prices on household goods.
“We urge the Trump administration and our Canadian and Mexican counterparts to work together to quickly resolve our outstanding border security issues.”
Global Data
Marketing insights platform Global Data offered the following analysis.
Mexico is grappling with rising risks stemming from strained relations with the US during President Donald Trump’s second term. Trump’s “America First” policies, including a proposed 25% tariff on Mexican goods, pose a significant threat to Mexico’s export sector and could disrupt North American supply chains. Weak domestic demand is also expected to further hinder Mexico’s economic growth. Against this backdrop, Mexico’s GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1.1% in 2025, down from 1.5% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2023.
Our latest report, “Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Mexico”, reveals that domestic demand in Mexico is expected to remain subdued due to a rising unemployment rate. Real household consumption expenditure growth is projected to decline to 1.8% in 2025, down from 2.0% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2023. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecast to increase to 3% in 2025, compared to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2023.
Mexico's central bank, Banco de México, reduced the key policy rate six times since March 2024. The most recent cut occurred in February 2025, when the Governing Board lowered the overnight interbank interest rate by 50 basis points to 9.5%, driven by easing inflationary pressures. Inflation in January 2025 dropped to a four-year low of 3.6%.
Gayatri Ganpule, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Mexico’s economic growth in 2025 is likely to encounter significant challenges, including uncertainty under a new US presidency and evolving global geopolitical dynamics. The US policy shifts, such as tariffs and immigration reforms, are expected to adversely impact trade and remittances. Investor sentiment may be further weakened by controversial judicial reforms, while Pemex’s financial struggles under revised energy policies could add to the economic strain. Additionally, rising public debt poses a risk of losing the nation’s investment-grade rating. As such, strategic actions will be essential to ensure stability.”
In terms of sectors, mining, manufacturing, and utility activities contributed 26.2% to Mexico’s gross value added (GVA) in 2024, followed by wholesale, retail, and hotels business activities (23.9%), and financial intermediation, real estate, and business activities (16.2%). In nominal terms, the three sectors are forecast to grow by 6.5%, 7.6%, and 7.4%, respectively, in 2025, compared to an estimated 6.8%, 8%, and 7.8% growth in 2024.
Ganpule adds: “The external sector is expected to face challenges as proposed tariff measures could sharply increase costs, disrupt the automotive and agriculture industries, and threaten millions of jobs across North America. Additionally, potential retaliatory actions from Mexico, as warned by President Claudia Sheinbaum, could further strain trade relations.”
According to GlobalData analysis using data from ITC Trade Map, vehicles and auto parts accounted for 27.6% of Mexico’s total exports to the US in 2023, followed by 19.5% for electrical machinery and 17.4% for nuclear reactors, boilers, and mechanical appliances. Trump’s proposed tariff could severely impact these sectors, disrupting trade and supply chains.
Ganpule continues: “The automotive industry, Mexico’s largest exporter, faces significant risks. Major automakers like Ford, Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, General Motors, and Stellantis operate large manufacturing plants in Mexico, and tariffs could threaten exports, production, and investment stability.”
Beyond autos, Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, relies heavily on the US for its sales and could see revenue declines. In consumer goods, companies like Controladora Mabe (home appliances) and Becle (tequila producer) are particularly vulnerable, with a hefty share of their revenues coming from US sales. The agribusiness sector could also feel the impact, affecting firms such as Grupo Bimbo, Sigma Alimentos, Gruma, and Arca Continental, though their US operations may provide some buffer.
Mexico's 2025 budget prioritizes fiscal discipline, aiming to reduce the budget deficit to 3.9% of GDP from 5.9% in 2024. The government plans significant spending cuts across sectors like defense, security, and the environment while focusing on achieving a primary budget surplus to ensure fiscal sustainability alongside economic growth and social development.
Mexico ranked 82nd out of 153 nations in the GCRI Q4 2024 update, with an overall risk score of 57.8, placing it in the medium-risk category (scores between 40 and 60). This indicates a higher risk than the North American average of 43.8 and the global average of 55.0.
Ganpule concludes: “Mexico’s economic trajectory depends on proactive fiscal policies, investment climate improvements, and strategic international negotiations. Strengthening trade alliances with other global partners and fostering domestic innovation will be crucial in mitigating external risks and ensuring long-term growth.”
