While potential strikes at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports have been averted due to a tentative labor agreement, major container ports have already seen a surge in imports that is expected to continue because of potential increases in tariffs, according to the Global Port Tracker report released on January 10 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“Just a few days ago, the clock was ticking down toward a possible strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports, and an agreement that would avoid a shutdown appeared to be some way off,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a statement. “We have narrowly averted a strike, but that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been an impact. Importers had already front-loaded cargo in anticipation of delays, giving a boost to imports in December and early January.”
In addition to the potential strike, other factors are at hand as well. "The surge in imports has also been driven by President-elect Trump’s plan to increase tariffs because retailers want to avoid higher costs that will eventually be paid by consumers," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. "The long-term impact on imports remains to be seen.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.17 million TEU in November, although the Ports of New York and New Jersey have yet to report final data. That was down 3.2% from October but up 14.7% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported December’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.24 million TEU, up 19.2% year over year. That would bring 2024 to 25.6 million TEU, up 15.2% from 2023.
Before the October port contract extension and the 2024 elections, November had been forecast at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, while the total for 2024 was forecast at 24.9 million TEU.
Forecasts include:
- January is forecast at 2.16 million TEU, up 10% year over year
- February at 1.87 million TEU, down 4.5% because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China
- March at 2.13 million TEU, up 10.6%
- April at 2.18 million TEU, up 8%
- May at 2.2 million TEU, up 5.9%
