Imports at the major container ports should continue at elevated levels, despite the three-day strike that shut down operations from Maine to Texas, according to the Global Port Tracker report released on October 8 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“It was a huge relief for retailers, their customers and the nation’s economy that the strike was short lived,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said, in a statement. “It will take the affected ports a couple of weeks to recover, but we can rest assured that all ports across the country will be working hard to meet demand, and no impact on the holiday shopping season is expected.
"The strike wasn’t without impacts – retailers who brought in cargo early or shifted delivery to the West Coast face added warehousing and transportation costs. But the priority now is for both parties to negotiate in good faith and reach a long-term contract before the short-term extension ends in mid-January. We don’t want to face a disruption like this all over again.”
Ports handled unusually large volumes of cargo beginning this spring as importers brought in goods early because of the potential for a strike and shifted a number of vessels to the West Coast, where dockworkers are represented by a different union.
“The surge in imports over the past few months has clearly been the result of contingency imports by wholesalers, retailers and industrial companies in anticipation of the East and Gulf Coast port strike rather than a sudden increase in demand,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. in a statement. “We may see some short-term congestion on the West Coast but nothing significant, and East Coast delays should be limited.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.34 million TEU in August, although the ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have yet to report final data. That was up 0.9% from July and up 19.3% year over year for the highest volume since the record of 3.4 million TEU set in May 2022.
Ports have not yet reported September’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.29 million TEU, up 12.9% year over year.
October is forecast at 2.12 million TEU, up 3.1% year over year. That is slightly higher than the 2.08 million TEU forecast for October a month ago, and the strike did not appear to affect national totals.
Forecast for the upcoming months is as follows:
- November is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, up 0.9% year over year
- December at 1.88 million TEU, up 0.2%. That would bring 2024 to 24.9 million TEU, up 12.1% from 2023.
- January 2025 is forecast at 1.98 million TEU, up 0.8% year over year
- February 2025 is forecast at 1.74 million TEU, down 11.2% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories.
The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales – excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
