Despite overall flat July sales reported by the Census Bureau, core retail sales as calculated by the National Retail Federation rose in July. Both calculations showed strong year-over-year gains as consumers kept shopping despite high inflation, NRF said August 17.
“Retail sales grew in July, supported by declines in prices at the gas pump and moderately lower inflation,” NRF CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement.“Consumers are adapting to higher prices by prioritizing essentials like food and back-to-school items, and retailers are working hard to absorb the impact of higher costs and help customers stretch their hard-earned dollars. However, policy measures like removing China tariffs, enacting smart immigration reform and investing in supply chain resiliency are needed to relieve inflationary pressure and lower costs for American families."
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said consumer spending was encouraging. "Nonetheless, inflation is still disturbingly high even as it eases and is the most important challenge for consumers and retailers. The future path of inflation remains a key factor for the economy and monetary policy as the Federal Reserve works to bring price increases under control.”
The U.S. Census Bureau said overall retail sales in July were unchanged from June but up 10.3% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 8.5% year over year in June. On a three-month moving average, sales were up 9.2% year-over-year.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales – which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – showed July was up 0.8% from June and up 7.1% unadjusted year over year. In June, sales were up 0.6% month over month and up 6% year over year.
NRF’s numbers were up 7% unadjusted year over year on a three-month moving average as of July. Sales were up 6% year over year for the first seven months of the year, keeping results on track with NRF’s forecast that 2022 retail sales will grow between 6% and 8% over 2021.
July sales were up in all but three retail categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, building material stores and grocery stores, and increased in all but two categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:
- Online and other non-store sales were up 2.7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 18.1% unadjusted year-over-year.
- Building materials and garden supply stores were up 1.5% month- over- month seasonally adjusted and up 6.2 percent unadjusted year over year.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 7.7% unadjusted year-over-year.
- Sporting goods stores were up 0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 3% unadjusted year- over-year.
- Health and personal care stores were up 0.4% month- over- month seasonally adjusted and up 1.5% unadjusted year over year.
- Clothing and clothing accessory stores were down 0.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 0.2% unadjusted year- over-year.
- General merchandise stores were down 0.7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 0.1% unadjusted year-over-year.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but down 0.3% unadjusted year-over- year.
- Electronics and appliance stores were up 0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but down 11.3% unadjusted year-over-year.
