Taiwan plays a critical role in the global tech supply chain. Apple Inc.’s main manufacturing partner is Foxconn Technology Group while Intel Corp. provides chips to many Taiwanese device-makers and the country’s contract semiconductor firms Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and United Microelectronics Corp. supply many U.S. companies.

While contract manufacturers such as Foxconn and Pegatron Corp. are Taiwanese, most of the assembling is done at enormous plants in mainland China.

The nightmare scenario would be a Chinese economic embargo of Taiwan that would reverberate around global supply chains, according to Ben Lee, co-founder of Glogou Inc., a startup based in Santa Clara, California, whose software helps U.S. businesses link with customers in Asia.

Any Trump-led policy shift “will create a huge tension among Taiwan, China and the U.S. -- this could be dangerous,” Lee said. “It could lead to an embargo between China and Taiwan. All the foundries are in Taiwan. The whole semiconductor industry could collapse.”

Even if Trump’s heated rhetoric is just a negotiating ploy, it’s already having an impact, said Ta-lin Hsu, founder and chairman of Palo Alto, California-based private equity fund H&Q Asia Pacific. Investment plans are on ice given the uncertain outlook and should a U.S.-China trade war break out, companies with small margins caught in the cross-hairs may go bankrupt, according to Hsu.

“Donald Trump doesn’t follow any the rules,” Hsu said. “It’s causing a huge sense of uncertainty. People are trying to guess what will happen next. No one has a clue.”

Chinese executives are betting that Trump’s business background means he will take a practical, bottom-line approach to the China relationship. “For now, I see his aggressive talk as a negotiation trick,” said Yang Nong, secretary of the board of Rastar Group, a Shenzhen-listed toy car maker. “He is a businessman and his ultimate consideration is about what’s good for profit, what’s good for business.”

Chinese Expansion

Tao Weimin, vice-president of Nanjing-based fashion apparel company V-Grass Fashion Co. agrees, but worries the Trump transition team’s brusque approach runs the risk of backfiring. “Beijing might feel like it cannot back down or be seen to be weak,” he said. “So there is a possibility of escalation.”

Even if the flap over Taiwan blows over, Carnival Corp. CEO Arnold Donald is far more concerned about what he sees as a global trend toward isolationism and regional tensions over China’s claims in the South China Sea that could harm his cruise ship business -- though he’s optimistic that won’t come to pass.

“Anything that inhibits travel. Anything that says to people you can’t travel here. Anything that says people getting nervous about traveling,” said Donald. “Those are the things that can hurt the cruise industry.”

Despite Trump’s tough talk toward China, there’s little prospect his tariff threat would bring many jobs back to the U.S., according to Jacob Parker, vice-president of China operations at the U.S.-China Business Council in Beijing. American companies that manufacture goods in China for export to the U.S. would more likely shift their production to Southeast Asia or India.

“They will not move manufacturing back to the U.S. as the costs are too high,” Parker said. “So in the short term, the cost of moving would raise prices on U.S. consumers, making them the biggest losers.”