Supply chain managers can look forward to a “below to near normal” hurricane season for 2014, according to the extended range North Atlantic forecast of The Hurricane Genesis & Outlook (HUGO) Project at Coastal Carolina University. According to the HUGO outlook (detailed in the table below), the most likely scenario is that no hurricanes will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast or on the Gulf Coast during the 2014 hurricane season (June 1 to Nov. 30); the second most likely scenario is that one hurricane will make landfall on the East Coast, and one hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast.
The outlook, which was tabulated in April 2014, also predicts that there will be a range of nine to 11 (with 10 most likely) tropical storms, three to six (with five most likely) hurricanes and one to two (with one most likely) major hurricanes this season. Updated outlooks will be released during the hurricane season in June, July and August 2014.
The latest prediction statistics are presented in the outlook listed in the graph below:
|
Category |
Forecast |
Forecast |
|
Historical Average |
|
TS |
10 |
9-11 |
|
12 |
|
NH |
5 |
(3-6) |
|
6.1 |
|
MH |
1 |
1-2 |
|
2.7 |
|
ECLF |
0.16 |
0,1* |
|
0.65 |
|
GMLF |
0.38 |
0,1* |
|
0.95 |
TS = named storms per season; NH = number of hurricanes; MH = major hurricanes (category 3 or higher); ECLF = number of landfall hurricanes on the Atlantic seaboard; GMLF = number of landfall hurricanes along the U.S. Gulf Coast. *The number of landfalls is given as a probability in order of decreasing likelihood in two stages: most likely and second most likely.
The HUGO hurricane seasonal outlook model is based on calculations of 22 climatological factors encompassing oceanic, atmospheric and shoreline activity. The model also considers detailed statistical data from previous Atlantic hurricanes going back to 1950.
